国际资本约束与顺周期财政政策

International Capital Constraints and Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy

本文首次建立理论模型证明了国际资本约束是发展中国家顺周期财政政策形成的重要动因。同时基于125个发展中国家1960-2016年的面板数据,得到了与理论预期一致且稳健的经验证据:发展中国家呈现出顺周期财政政策的典型事实。在充分考虑内生性问题,引入加权的贸易伙伴实际GDP增长率和加权的美国国债实际收益率作为有效工具变量后,这一结论仍然成立;主权信用评级每下调1个级别,顺周期财政政策倾向将会增加5.83%。这种国际资本市场的劣势地位所引致的国际资本强约束,是发展中国家采用顺周期财政政策的关键原因。本文的研究在经验上丰富了关于发展中国家顺周期财政政策成因的讨论,为深化发展中国家之间的国际合作与互助提供了政策启示。

The Western mainstream regards the pro-cyclical fiscal policy as a suboptimal choice,which leads to the controversy of the fiscal pro-cyclicality in developing countries.This paper establishes a theoretical model to prove that the international capital constraints are an important cause of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in developing countries.Using the panel data from 125 developing countries in 1960 to 2016,the empirical evidence is robust and in line with theoretical expectations.The results show that developing countries tend to exhibit strong fiscal pro-cyclicality.It still holds true when corrected for potential endogeneity,and real GDP growth rate with weighted trade partners and real return rate of weighted US bonds are introduced as effective instrument variables.With 1 unit decline in sovereign credit rating,the fiscal pro-cyclicality tends to increase by 5.83%.It suggests that international capital constraints caused by their inferior position in international capital markets play a crucial role in the adoption of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in developing countries.This paper enriches the discussion on the causes of fiscal pro-cyclicality in developing countries,and provides policy suggestions for deepening international cooperation and mutual assistance among developing countries.