国外跨境电子商务税收冲击的经济效应:基于TSO-DSGE模型的研究

The Economic Effect of Tax Shocks in Cross-border E-Commerce:A Research Based on TSO-DSGE Model

基于跨境电子商务的特点,本文构建了一个包含异质性贸易品生产商的三部门开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型,并在模型中引入了跨境电子商务出口贸易中介部门,定量分析了国外跨境电子商务税收冲击的经济效应。结果发现:①国外跨境电子商务税收冲击对我国产出的影响较为显著,抑制强度达71.3%,持续时间大致为10季;②对于厂商而言,税收冲击会提高产品价格,抑制国外居民消费,引发国内产出下降;为追求利润最大化,国内资本和劳动会转向传统贸易品和非贸易品;③提高跨境电子商务在出口贸易中的占比虽会导致收敛周期变长,但能更有效应对税收冲击;④跨境电子商务产品替代弹性越小,税收冲击的负面影响越小;且减少替代弹性能使税收冲击响应强度按64.22%的速度衰减,同时使产出波动周期平均缩短4.75季。据此,提出培育品牌卖家、增强消费者的品牌认同感,细化目标消费者、提高消费价格粘性,出台临时性出口补贴应对机制、落实解决出口退税难等对策。

This paper constructs a three-sector open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce,which contains heterogeneous traded goods producers.There is a cross-border e-commerce export intermediary in the model,to analyze the economic impact of foreign cross-border e-commerce tax shocks quantitatively.The simulation suggests that i)the foreign cross-border ecommerce tax shocks have a significant impact on China’s output,whose inhibition strength has reached 71.3%with a duration of roughly ten quarters.ii)For producers,tax shocks will increase product prices,curb the consumption overseas,and lead to a decline in domestic output;in order to maximize profits,domestic capital and labor will shift to traditionally traded goods and non-traded goods.iii)The increase in the proportion of cross-border e-commerce in export trade will lead to a longer convergence period,but it can deal with tax shocks more effectively.iv)The smaller the substitution elasticity of cross-border e-commerce products,the smaller the negative impact of tax shocks,and the reduction of substitution elasticity can make the tax shock response intensity decrease at a rate of 64.22%,and the output fluctuation cycle is shortened by an average of 4.75 quarters.Based on this,the paper proposes the following three recommendations.Firstly,the government should cultivate brand sellers and enhance consumers’brand recognition.Secondly,the government needs to increase consumer price adhesion by refining target consumers.Lastly,the government needs to introduce a temporary export subsidy response mechanism to solve the difficulties of getting export tax rebates.