基于态势预测的超视距目标威胁评估方法

A Threat Assessment Method for Beyond-Visual-Range Air Combat Based on Situation Prediction

提出了一种综合考虑能力威胁、态势威胁和空战意图威胁的超视距空战目标威胁评估新方法。首先,在能力威胁模型中加入了先敌发射能力威胁和超视距导弹攻击威胁模型;其次,针对态势威胁以态势有效性、制导有效性进行修正,给出一种新的态势威胁计算方法;然后,基于隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)实现目标的机动辨识和态势预测,在此基础上提出了意图威胁建模方法;最后,对综合威胁评估模型进行了仿真,验证了所提方法在超视距目标威胁评估问题中的有效性。

A new threat assessment method for Beyond-Visual-Range(BVR)air combat is proposed taking capability threat situation threat and intention threat into consideration.Firstly the first-shot capability threat model and the attack threat model of the BVR air-to-air missile are added to the capability threat model.Secondly the situation threat is modified by the situation validation factor and the missile-guidance validation factor.A new situation threat calculation method is given.Then the target maneuvering recognition and situation prediction are carried out based on the Hidden Markov Model(HMM)and then an intention threat modeling method is proposed.At last a simulation is carried out on the comprehensive threat assessment model which proves that the proposed method is effective in BVR air combat.