我国人口结构变化、资本偏向型技术进步与劳动收入份额演变--基于1990-2017省际面板数据的研究

China’s Demographic Changes, Capital-biased Technological Progress and the Evolution of Labor Income Share: Based on the Research of Provincial-level Panel Data from 1990 to 2017

在我国老龄化程度加深及出生率下降的背景下,从常数替代弹性(constant elasticity of substitution, CES)生产函数出发,构建理论模型,试图从人口结构、技术进步偏向角度探索我国劳动收入份额的演变机制。并通过我国1990-2017年省级层面数据的研究,表明经济发展要素间是互补的,技术进步偏向资本以及我国人口结构的变化--老年抚养比上升及少儿抚养比下降对我国劳动收入份额产生了负面的影响。同时,技术进步的资本偏向性特征降低了我国劳动收入份额。在控制了其他因素、分区域及剔除异常值进行检验后,结果仍然显著。

In the context of the deepening of aging in China and the decline of birth rate, this paper attempts to construct a theoretical model from the constant elasticity of substitution(CES) production function, and derives the influence mechanism of population structure and technological progress bias on China’s labor income share. And based on China’s 1990-2017 panel data research, China’s elements are complementary, and technological progress is biased towards capital. It is confirmed that the change of population structure in China-the rise of the old-age dependency ratio and the decline in the dependency ratio of children have a negative impact on the share of labor income in China. At the same time, the capital-biased characteristics of China’s technological progress have reduced the share of labor income in China. After controlling for other factors, sub-regions, and rejection of outliers, the results are still significant.