面向领跑者、并跑者的发展情报判读研究

Research on the Interpretation of Development Intelligence for Leaders and the Tied for Leaders

[目的/意义]改革开放40年来,中国逐步缩小与发达国家之间的差距,在有些方面已经从跟跑者转为领跑者、并跑者。为促进新时代情报工作的发展,有必要对面向领跑者、并跑者的发展情报判读过程进行深入分析。[方法/过程]厘清发展情报的服务对象,进一步分析服务领跑者、并跑者的原因。基于发展情报的概念,提出发展情报判读模型,并阐述该模型采用的判读策略。[结果/结论]发展情报判读过程由提出问题、评估发展态势、判读和筛选发展目标及发展路径、解决问题等阶段组成。在各阶段实现过程中,结合专家智慧、统计分析和人工智能技术辅助判读,并引入反馈机制、突变与容错机制优化判读过程。

[Purpose/significance] Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China has gradually narrowed the gap with developed countries,and it has changed from the following runner to the leader or the tied for leaders in some aspects.In order to promote the development of intelligence work in the new era,it is necessary to make a thorough analysis of the interpretation process of development intelligence for leaders and the tied for leaders.[Method/process]The service object of development intelligence is clarified,and the reasons of serving leaders and the tied for leaders are further analyzed.Based on the concept of development intelligence,an interpretation model of development intelligence is put forward,and the interpretation strategies adopted in this model are expounded.[Result/conclusion] The interpretation process of development intelligence consists of raising problems,assessing development trends,interpreting and screening development goals and development paths,and solving problems.In the implementation process of each stage,expert intelligence,statistical analysis and artificial intelligence technology are applied to assist interpretation.Besides,feedback mechanism,mutation and fault-tolerance mechanism are introduced to optimize the interpretation process.