计算情报初探

Preliminary Exploration of Computational Intelligence

[目的/意义]面向发展情报,未来的情报工作可能面临解决多维目标问题,以及实现每个目标的多重发展路径的选取问题,传统的情报方法在解决多情报并行问题上无法满足大规模人力需求,需要借助人工智能、脑科学、认知技术等手段,通过计算机来计算情报、辅助决策。文章从量化计算对科学研究的重要作用入手,分析计算情报的重要意义。[方法/过程]将计算情报界定为以计算机的"运算能力(大数据)"为经,"计算思维(人工智能)"为纬进行情报的量化分析和判断,针对计算情报面临的挑战与机遇进行了分析;提出实现计算情报的两个前提和一个转化基本思路,两个前提是大数据环境和人工智能技术,一个转化是将情报活动中的过程性的主观决策转化为客观概率上的不确定性,并通过"证据链模型"探索计算情报的实现途径。[结果/结论]认为当前环境下,计算情报是可能实现的。计算情报的实现不仅需要情报与信息技术、人工智能技术融合,还需要应用以数学理论为代表的基础科学理论。

[Purpose/significance] Geared to the needs of developing intelligence,the future intelligence work may face the problem of solving multi-dimensional goals and the selection of multiple development paths to achieve each goal.In solving the problem of multi-intelligence parallel,the traditional intelligence method cannot meet the large-scale manpower demand.With the help of artificial intelligence,brain science,cognitive technology and other technical methods,humans use computers to calculate intelligence and assist decision-making.This paper starts from the important role of computing in scientific research and analyzes the significance of computing intelligence.[Method/process] In this paper,Computational Intelligence is defined as the quantitative analysis and judgment of intelligence based on "computing ability(big data)" and "computational thinking(artificial intelligence)" of computers,analyze the challenges and opportunities of computational intelligence,put forward two preconditions and a basic idea of transformation to achieve computational intelligence.Two preconditions are big data environment and artificial intelligence technology.One transformation is the transformation of procedural subjective decisions in intelligence activities into objective probabilistic uncertainties.Then,we explore the implementation of computational intelligence through the "chain of evidence model".[Result/conclusion] In the current environment,we believe that computational intelligence is possible.The realization of computational intelligence requires not only the integration of intelligence,information technology and artificial intelligence,but also the application of basic scientific theories represented by mathematical theories.