2001-2015年中国市域旅游流的时空格局与溢出效应

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Spillover Effects of Tourism Flows in Chinese Cities from 2001 to 2015

借助探索性空间数据分析、空间杜宾模型及其效应分解等方法,系统研究了2001-2015年中国市域旅游流的时空格局与溢出效应。结果表明:1)15年来,中国市域国内和入境旅游流的空间结构相对稳定,空间差异不断缩小;从东中西三大区域来看,西部的入境旅游流和中部的国内旅游流空间均衡程度均有显著提升;2)国内旅游流比入境旅游流具有更高的空间依赖性,两者的局部空间关联模式均以高-高和低-低集聚为主,但其时空演化路径存在明显差异;3)国内和入境旅游流表现出显著的空间溢出效应,本市国内和入境旅游流每提升1%,将会带动邻近市域国内和入境旅游流分别增长0.433%和0.307%,国内旅游发展表现出更高的空间带动效应;4)驱动旅游流增长的各因素具有显著的直接推动作用,但对国内和入境旅游流的空间交互作用存在不同,当前国内和入境旅游流的核心驱动因素分别为地区经济发展和旅游资源禀赋,而旅游资源的开发和交通条件的改善在为本地带来旅游增长的同时,也会为区域旅游发展带来竞争效应和过道效应。

Using the exploratory spatial data analysis,spatial Durbin model(SDM)and its spatial effect decomposition,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern and spatial spillover effects of tourism flows in Chinese cities from 2001 to 2015.The results show that:firstly,the spatial structure of domestic and inbound tourism flows in Chinese cities has been relatively stable,and the spatial differences in both domestic and inbound tourism flows have been shrinking in the past 15 years.From the perspective of the three regions of China,the spatial balance of inbound tourism flows in Western China and the domestic tourism flows in central China have significantly improved during the study period.Secondly,the spatial dependence of domestic tourism flows is higher than that of inbound tourism flows.The local spatial correlation patterns of domestic and inbound tourism flows are mainly high-high and low-low agglomeration,however,their spatial-temporal evolutionary paths are significantly different.Thirdly,there exist significant spatial spillover effects in domestic and inbound tourism flows.For every 1%increase in domestic and inbound tourism flows,the domestic and inbound tourism flows in neighboring cities will increase by 0.433%and 0.307%,respectively.The domestic tourism development shows a higher spatial driving effect.Finally,all of the factors driving the growth of tourism flows have obvious direct effects,but their spatial interaction on domestic and inbound tourism flows are different.At this stage,the core driving factor of domestic and inbound tourism flows is regional economic development and tourism resource endowments,respectively.The development of tourism resources and the improvement of traffic conditions will bring about the tourism growth in the local cities,and also bring competitive effects and aisle effects to regional tourism industry.