人口老龄化、金融资产结构与宏观经济波动效应

Chinese Aging Problem and Its Effect on Financial Asset and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

本文构建了一个包含平均年龄异质性家庭和创新异质性企业的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析人口老龄化对宏观经济的冲击效应得出:随着中国人口老龄化程度的提高,家庭持有的流动性金融资产占金融总资产的比例上升、资本性金融资产所占比重逐渐下降,从而引起宏观金融结构的变动;中国人口老龄化引发的金融结构变动将导致劳动减少、消费减少、产出降低,甚至影响企业创新投资降低,进而导致高投资的经济增长模式发生变化。研究结论的政策含义在于:劳动增长依赖、投资增长依赖、技术模仿依赖都难以为继,经济高质量发展的动力应集中到创新方面,激励企业技术创新是市场机制改革的重要方向,引导市场资金对技术创新型企业的投资支持,同时应避免企业技术创新投资的剧烈上涨造成经济震荡。

Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with mean age heterogeneous families and innovative heterogeneous enterprises,this paper draws the following conclusions.As Chinese aging problem becomes more significant,the ratio of the liquid saving assets held by families to the total financial assets will rise,and the capital saving assets to the total financial assets will decline generally.The of financial asset restructuring resulting from the aging problem in China may cause the decrease of labor forces,consumptions and outputs,and in some cases even cause the decline of innovation investment in enterprises,or may further lead to the change of the model of economic growth represented by a higher investment rate.The policy implications are(1)Mere reliance on the labor expansion,larger investment and technical imitation is unsustainable for economic growth;(2)The impetus of economic stability should concentrate on technical innovation;(3)Stimulating the technological innovation in enterprises is an important direction in the reform of market mechanism;(4)Actions should be taken to guide the capital to flow into technical innovation enterprises,and meanwhile,it is vital to avoid economic shock caused by the dramatically increasing investment scales of technical innovation.