改革开放以来中国经济发展阶段与人力资本结构研究

China’s Economic Development Stage and Human Capital Structure since Reform and Opening-up

为了与经济发展的阶段性划分相适应,并参照各国人力资本发展的共同规律,本文将中国人力资本发展划分为初步形成、结构升级、学习模仿和自主创新四个阶段。同时,本文将结构因素引入人力资本分析框架,提出五种基于不同投资水平下的人力资本类型结构。在此基础上,运用1978-2016年31个省份的面板数据进行实证检验,结果显示,不同经济发展阶段对人力资本和学历教育的需求差异较大,目前我国人力资本发展正处于自主创新这一阶段,对创新人力资本和硕博生的投资会对我国经济增长产生显著正向影响,而其他类型的投资无明显作用甚至会产生负向影响,同时人力资本的存量和结构因素也为沿海和内陆之间的地区发展不平衡做出了解释。

With reference to the general categorization of economic development stages and international experiences of human capital development, we divide China’s human capital development into four stages: initial formation, structural upgrading, imitative learning and independent innovation. We also introduce structural factors into human capital analysis and propose five different types of human capital structure based on the investment level. Working within this framework, we use a panel data of 31 provinces from 1978 to 2016 to conduct empirical tests, and show that the demand for human capital and academic education differs significantly in different economic development stages. Our analysis further shows that China’s human capital development is in the stage of independent innovation, when investment in skilled human capital and postgraduate education will have a strong positive effect on China’s economic growth, while other types of investment will have little or even negative impact. Furthermore,the stock and structural factors of human capital provide explanation for regional imbalances between coastal and inland areas.