中国乳制品进口市场集中度的演变规律研究

Research on the Evolution of Concentration of Chinese Dairy Products Import Market

我国是国际乳制品市场上最重要的贸易主体之一,乳制品也是我国需要大量进口的产品。本文基于1997-2017年的乳制品贸易数据,分析了我国各类乳制品进口的数量、结构以及主要来源地演变趋势,并进一步采用进口来源国集中度(CRn)和赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)测算了近20年我国乳制品进口市场的集中度水平。研究结果表明,近20年我国乳制品市场集中度的演变呈负偏态型,乳制品进口市场一直为高寡占型,主要集中在新西兰、澳大利亚、美国、法国和德国等国家,各类乳制品的进口市场结构存在差异,奶粉、酸奶和炼乳的进口市场过度集中,行业风险依然明显。

China is one of the most important trade entities in the international dairy market, dairy are also products that are needed to be imported in large quantities in China. Based on dairy trade data from 1997 to 2017, this article analyzes the number, structure, and evolution of major sources of dairy products in China, and further adopts the import source countries concentration(CRn) and Herfindahl-Hirschman(HHI).The later index measures the concentration level of China’s dairy import market in the past 20 years. The research results show that in the past 20 years, the evolution of the concentration of dairy products in our country has been negatively skewed, and the dairy product import market has always been highly oligopolistive, mainly concentrating in New Zealand, Australia, the United States, France, Germany, and other countries. There is a difference in the import market structure of different type of dairy priducts, and the import market for milk powder, yoghurt and condensed milk is excessively concentrated, and the industry risk is still significant.