大数据视角下的游客人数统计问题研究

Research on the Statistical Problem of Visitor Number from the Big Data Perspective

随着全域旅游的推进,景点与非景点的界限不再明晰。基于旅游目的地各个景点、酒店、交通等数据简单加和的传统旅游人数统计方法,因为大量重复计算导致统计数据完整性和准确性难以保障,可信度不高,对政策制定者、管理者、投资者的参考意义越来越小,也难以支撑新形势下旅游及相关产业的统计需求。本文首先剖析传统统计方法存在的问题和在大数据视角下游客人数统计的利与弊,尝试从数据思维的角度分析和讨论旅游人数统计模型,然后对2019年国庆黄金周期间广西壮族自治区、南宁市、桂林市和玉林市的游客人数以三大通信运营商的信令数据为主数据源进行验证,结果表明,本文的方法为建立切实可行、简单实用的大数据旅游统计模型和统计标准提供了一种新的思路。

With the development of global tourism, the boundary between scenic spots and non-scenic spots is not so clear as it was. Integrity and veracity of statistical data from traditional visitor number statistical approach, supported by simple additivity and a large number of double counting based on data from scenic spots, hotels and transportation in tourism destination, is of low confidence level, less referential value to policy makers, managers and investors and difficult to meet the statistical demands of tourism and relevant industries under the new circumstance. The paper starts the study with visitor number statistic to dissect the problems of traditional statistic and the advantages and disadvantages of visitor number statistic from the big data perspective, analyses visitor number statistical model from data thinking perspective, verifies the visitor numbers in Guangxi, Naning and Guilin during the National Day in 2019 with the signaling data from the biggest three telecommunication operators as major data source and tries to offer valuable reference to help to build up simple and practical tourism statistical model and statistical standard.