创新驱动与新旧动能转换互动关系研究——以青岛市为例

Research on the Interaction Between Innovation Drive and the Replacement of Growth Drivers——Taking Qingdao as an Example

创新驱动和新旧动能转换是经济转型的两大重要战略。建立了VAR模型,通过脉冲响应、方差分解相结合的方法对青岛市创新驱动和新旧动能转换互动关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)创新驱动的提高有利于经济发展新动力的形成,推动新旧动能转换进程,但存在滞后效应;(2)新动能的形成对创新驱动具有反作用;(3)创新驱动系统中各项指标与新旧动能转换综合水平的相关度有所不同。最后基于研究结果提出了通过创新驱动加快新旧动能转换的有关建议。

Innovation drive and the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones are two important strategies for economic transformation.In this paper,VAR model is established to analyze the interactive relationship between innovation drive and the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in Qingdao by combining impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that:(1)innovation drive,which is conducive to the formation of new economic growth drivers,could push ahead the replacement of old growth drivers but has a lag effect;(2)the formation of new growth drivers has a reverse effect on innovation drive;(3)the correlations between the indicators of innovation-driven system and the comprehensive level of replacement of growth drivers are different.Finally,based on the research results,some suggestions are put forward to accelerate the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones through innovation drive.