入境旅游与城市经济耦合协调发展分析——以桂林为例

Analysis on the Coupling and Coordinated Development of Inbound Tourism and Urban Economy:Take Guilin as an Example

基于耦合理论,在分析入境旅游与城市经济耦合机理的基础上,建构评价指标体系,选择中国典型旅游城市桂林,根据2006-2017年入境旅游与城市经济系统各个指标的统计数据,对两系统耦合度与协调度大尺度演化态势做了实证分析。测评数据表明:桂林耦合度与协调度指数均出现大幅度上涨趋势,耦合协调发展态势不断得到优化,但不足之处是整体协调等级依然不是很高,处于“拮抗耦合”状态,耦合协调度指数尚处于“中级协调”阶段,制约耦合协调发展的关键原因是城市经济滞后。桂林需要在积极发展入境旅游的同时,继续调整城市产业结构,发展城市经济,使耦合度与协调度得到进一步优化。

Based on the coupling theory,by the analysis of the coupling mechanism between inbound tourism and urban economy,the evaluation index system is constructed,and the typical tourist city of Guilin is selected.According to the statistical data of each index of inbound tourism and urban economic system from 2006 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the situation of large-scale evolution of coupling and coordination between the two systems.The measurement data show that the coupling-degree and coordination degree indices in Guilin have shown a large increase trend,and the coupling and coordinated development situation has been continuously optimized.However,the shortcoming is that the overall coordination level is still not very high and is in an“antagonistic coupling”state.The coupling coordination index is still in the“intermediate coordination”stage.The key reason that restricts the coordinated development of coupling is the lag of urban economy.While actively developing inbound tourism,Guilin needs to continue to adjust the urban industrial structure,develop the urban economy,and further optimize the degree of coupling and coordination.