新型基础设施投资与产业结构转型升级

New Infrastructure Investment and Structural Transformation

中国在高速增长阶段基础设施投资保持了快速增长,但进入高质量发展阶段,传统基础设施投资部分转向5G、人工智能、工业互联网和物联网等新型基础设施投资。本文提出,新型基础设施和传统基础设施在供给侧所影响的具体生产技术和在需求侧所涉及的投资的产业来源构成上均存在差别。当制造业的资本产出弹性较高且制造业和服务业的产品替代弹性较低,或者制造业的资本和劳动的替代弹性较高时,新型基础设施投资将在供给侧通过提高制造业资本密集程度和实际产出比重推动制造业升级,通过提高服务业就业比重和名义产出比重推动服务业发展;当生产来源上新型基础设施的服务业投入比重高于传统基础设施时,新型基础设施投资将在需求侧通过提高服务业就业比重和名义产出比重拉动服务业发展。本文关注到基础设施投资结构正在转型,从这一视角发展了结构转型和基础设施的理论研究。本文为新时代政府推动新型基础设施投资提供了理论依据,建议政府把握住新一轮科技革命和产业变革提供的新机遇,充分发挥新型举国体制优势,把加大新型基础设施投资作为稳定经济增长和优化经济结构的有效结合点,推动形成高质量发展新动能。

The infrastructure investment in China grows fast during the high-growth stage,and part of them has been changed to the new infrastructure,which includes 5G,artificial intelligence,industry internet and internet of things,since the high-quality development stage.This paper proposes that the new infrastructure and the traditional infrastructure are essentially different in the production technology from the supply side and in the sectoral composition of investment from the demand side.When the output elasticity of capital in manufacturing is high and the elasticity of substitution between manufacturing and services is low,or the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is high in manufacturing,the new infrastructure investment,from the supply side,may promote the industrial upgrade by increasing the capital intensity and the real output share of manufacturing,and may push the rise of services by increasing the employment share and the nominal output share of services.When the share of service input in the new infrastructure is higher than that in the traditional infrastructure,the new infrastructure investment,from the demand side,may push the rise of services by increasing the employment share and the nominal output share of services.This paper enriches the literature of structural transformation and infrastructure by highlighting the role of the structural change in the infrastructure investment.China’s government should take the advantage of new national system by spending more on the new infrastructure during the new wave of technological revolution and structural transformation,which can be an effective way to simultaneously stabilize the growth and improve the economic structure,and to form a new force shaping high-quality development.