“互联网+”信息披露：实质性陈述还是策略性炒作——基于股价崩盘风险的证据

“Internet Plus” Information Disclosure: Substantive Statement or Strategic Manipulation——Evidence Based on the Risk of Stock Price Crash

现有关于股价崩盘成因的研究主要基于信息操纵理论,该理论认为企业对负面消息的隐藏是导致股价崩盘的重要原因。本文延续信息操纵与股价崩盘的理论分析框架,从隐藏负面消息的对立面--夸大正面消息出发,提出夸大正面消息同样会导致股价崩盘。具体来讲,本文使用上市公司年报中披露的"互联网+"相关信息,研究了"互联网+"信息披露对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,企业披露的"互联网+"信息越多,股价崩盘风险越高,支持了"互联网+"信息披露的策略性炒作假说。同时,企业的资源获取动机、市值管理动机及宏观层面的炒作环境强化了"互联网+"信息披露的股价崩盘效应。进一步研究发现,"互联网+"信息披露的股价崩盘效应仅存在于夸大披露的情况下,但企业信息环境的改善会弱化上述效应。本文的实证结果支持了夸大正面消息也是导致股价崩盘的理论推断。

The existing research on the causes of stock price crash is mainly based on the theory of information manipulation,which holds that the concealment of negative information is an important reason for stock price crash.This paper continues the theoretical analysis framework of information manipulation and stock price crash,from the opposite of hiding negative news--exaggerating positive news,and proposes that exaggerating positive news can also lead to stock price crash.Specifically,this paper studies the impact of internet plus information disclosure on the risk of stock price crash by using the internet plus information disclosed in the annual reports of listed companies.The study finds that the more internet plus information disclosed by enterprises,the higher the risk of stock price crash,which supports the strategic speculation hypothesis of"internet plus"information disclosure.Meanwhile,the resource acquisition motivation,market value management motivation and macro level speculation environment have strengthened the stock price crash effect of"internet plus"information disclosure.Further studies show that the"stock price crash effect"of"internet plus"information disclosure exists only in exaggerated disclosure,but the improvement of information environment will weaken the above effect.The empirical results of this paper support the theoretical inference that exaggerating positive news also leads to stock price crash.