中国农村家庭脱贫的时间路径及其策略选择

The Strategic Choice and Duration of Poverty Alleviation in Rural China

文章将时间概念引入贫困分析,进而发掘农村家庭的脱贫速度及脱贫稳定性,并使用中国家庭追踪调查数据,拟合加速失效时间模型与二元选择模型研究发现:(1)农村家庭脱贫存在久期相依性,37.2%的贫困人口在持续1年后可快速脱离贫困,但随时间延长,持续5年后能够脱贫的人口占比下降至8.6%。(2)多数家庭在脱贫后人均收入会增长到同期贫困标准的2倍以上,但也有近15%的脱贫人口在间隔3~5年后会出现返贫现象。(3)家庭成员外出务工或转变土地资源的利用方式来提高自有土地资产价值,可提高家庭快速脱贫的概率,也会提高家庭在脱贫后持续获取更高收入增幅的概率,但有慢性病患者的家庭脱贫速度更慢,脱贫后的收入增幅更低。(4)政府对贫困家庭提供的收入补助在帮扶脱贫、抑制返贫中的作用不显著,还会降低家庭在脱贫后赚取更高收入的概率。

The paper introduces time dimension into poverty analysis and explores the dynamics of falling into and getting rid of poverty. Using the data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), it employs accelerated failure time model and binary choice model to find that:(1) there is duration dependence in rural households’ poverty alleviation. 37.2% of the poor households can escape poverty in one year. However, as time goes on, the proportion of poor households that can escape poverty in 5 years decreases by 8.6%.(2) The per capita income increases to twice the poverty standard for most poverty-escaped households. However, nearly 15% of these escaped are found to return to poverty in three to five years.(3) Having migrant workers in a household or transfering the usage of land resources can increase the possibility of escaping poverty,and also have a higher growth of income afterwards. However, families with chronic diseases are slower in escaping poverty and their income growth rate is slower even after out of poverty.(4) The government income subsidies are insignificant for poverty reduction, and tend to reduce the possibility of earning higher income after escaping poverty.