中国碳排放权交易促进低碳技术创新机制的研究

Research on the impact mechanism of carbon emissions trading on low-carbon innovation in China

碳排放权交易已成为我国实施以市场为基础的重要环境规制之一,但此交易市场建设能否诱发我国低碳技术创新的有关研究仍然不足。以我国七个碳排放权交易试点为研究对象,采用合成控制法进行准自然实验,选取2004—2016年全国282个城市的面板数据,评估碳排放权交易试点政策对低碳技术创新的诱发效果,并使用排列检验法进行有效性检验;进而,定量分析碳排放权交易试点正式运行后对低碳技术创新的影响因素,探索七个试点效果差异的成因。研究发现:①碳排放权交易试点政策整体上诱发了试点地区的低碳技术创新活动。②各试点的政策效果存在一定差异,除重庆外的六个试点对政策响应较为迅速,其中北京、上海的诱发效果最显著,天津、广东、深圳和湖北次之,而重庆试点未能对政策作出充分的响应。③碳排放权交易对低碳技术创新作用中的政策"信号-预期"机制在我国首次得到验证,该机制在除重庆外的试点地区都得到了较好的构建。④碳排放权交易市场建设与区域产业结构升级产生了良好的协同作用,促进低碳技术创新,但其未能与外商直接投资形成相同作用;除重庆外,碳排放权交易这一市场型环境规制与控制型环境规制也呈现出协同作用。据此,应积极推进全国性碳排放权交易市场建设,以发挥其对低碳技术创新的诱发作用;但在统一市场建设过程中应重视地区差异,分步骤稳步推进;还应注重加强政府政策信号管理,引导企业开展低碳技术创新活动。

Carbon emissions trading(CET)has become an important market-based environmental regulation in China,but the research on how CET affects low-carbon innovation remains inadequate.Therefore,this paper focuses on the effect of the CET pilot policy of China on low-carbon innovation,using synthetic control method with panel data of 282 cities in China from 2004 to 2016.Moreover,quantitative analysis of such effect after the implementation of the CET pilot is executed to observe the differences among these pilots.The results show that the pilot policy as a whole positively affects low-carbon innovation in the pilot areas.However,there are some differences among them.Beijing and Shanghai have the most significant effects,followed by Tianjin,Guangdong,Shenzhen and Hubei,while Chongqing fails to respond adequately to the policy.Meanwhile,the signal-expectation mechanism of CET on low-carbon innovation is verified for the first time in these pilot areas except Chongqing.In addition,CET market construction and industrial structure upgrading form the synergy to promote low-carbon innovation,while FDI does not play the same role.Similarly,the marketbased and control-based environmental regulation also show a synergetic effect in the pilots,except Chongqing.Accordingly,the construction of a national unified CET market should be actively promoted to play its role on low-carbon innovation.In this process,the government should pay more attention to regional differences and steadily advance step by step.The management of policy signal is also important to guide enterprises to engage in low-carbon innovative activities.