基于灰色关联与D-S证据理论的城市地下综合管廊PPP项目风险分担

Risk Sharing of Urban Underground Utility Tunnel PPP Project Based on Grey Correlation and D-S Evidence Theory

针对地下综合管廊PPP项目风险分担复杂性问题,提出一种基于灰色关联与D-S证据理论的风险分担方法。主要研究与结论如下:1)利用案例分析法对影响PPP项目的关键因素进行提取,并结合管廊项目具体特征构建综合管廊PPP项目风险分担指标体系;2)综合考虑各参与方的风险偏好,构建出多层次的风险分担指标体系;3)借助灰色关联法对指标之间的关联性进行分析,参考以往的证据理论,结合对非关键因素影响的分析,给出了较为准确的证据合成公式,建立综合风险分担模型;4)将该模型运用于山东省济南高新区地下综合管廊PPP项目,通过融合专家证据信息对参与方应该承担的风险进行合理的划分,保证了该模型的准确性、合理性和可行性,该风险分担模型对我国综合管廊PPP项目风险分担的研究具有一定的参考价值。

The risk sharing of PPP projects in underground utility tunnel is complex.Hence,a risk sharing method based on grey correlation and D-S evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,the key factors affecting PPP projects are extracted by case analysis method,and the risk sharing index system for PPP projects in utility tunnel is constructed based on the specific characteristics of the utility project.Secondly,a multi-level risk sharing index system is constructed by comprehensively considering the risk preferences of all participants.Thirdly,the correlation between indices is analyzed by means of grey correlation method,a more accurate evidence composition formula is given,and a comprehensive risk sharing model is established based on previous evidence theory and the analysis on the influence of non-key factors.Fourthly,the model is applied to the underground utility tunnel PPP project in Jinan High-tech Zone.The risk that the participants should bear is reasonably divided by integrating expert evidence information,thus ensuring the accuracy,rationality and feasibility of the model.The risk sharing model can provide reference for the research on risk sharing of PPP projects in utility tunnel in the future.