长江经济带碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系--基于生产侧和消费侧视角

Decoupling analysis between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt——production and consumption perspectives

构建长江经济带多区域投入产出表,并基于Tapio脱钩模型和结构分解分析,从生产侧和消费侧视角研究2002-2012年长江经济带各省市分行业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应及影响因素.在此基础上,研究长江经济带各省市投资、消费和出口引致的隐含碳排放与经济增长的关系.结果发现:从省市层面来看,与2002-2007年相比,2007-2012年各省市生产侧碳排放的脱钩状态有所好转,均呈现为弱脱钩.消费侧方面,2007-2012年期间5省市(江苏省、安徽省、湖北省、重庆市和贵州省)为扩张连接,云南省为扩张负脱钩,可以发现生产侧视角下存在高估脱钩状态的现象.从各省市分行业来看,中上游地区制造业在2002-2007年期间消费侧的碳排放多呈现为弱脱钩,到了2007-2012年消费侧的脱钩状态总体上较不理想.建筑业具有类似情况.2007-2012年各省市的电力行业在两视角下均实现脱钩.从消费、投资和出口的角度来看,2007-2012年下游地区出口和投资的脱钩状态趋于好转.中上游地区投资的脱钩状态趋于恶化,出口的脱钩状态好转不明显.

The multiregional input-output table of the Yangtze River Economic Beltwas established.Then the Tapio decoupling model and Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA)were used to study the decoupling relationshipbetween economic growth and carbon emissions of various regional industries from 2002 to 2012.And different kinds of consumtpion(investment,consumption and export)were also identified.The resultsshowthat from a regional perspective,the relationship during 2007-2012 all showed a relatively ideal weak decoupling state compared that during 2002-2007.Under the consumption-based principle,carbon emissions and economic growth in 5provinces(Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei,Chongqing,and Guizhou Province)were expansive coupling,and Yunnan Province was expansive negative decoupling from 2007 to 2012.Decoupling performances based on production-based perspective were generally overestimated in comparison to those based on consumption-based.At industry level,the consumption-based decoupling states of the manufacturing industry in the middle and downstream area tendedto be weak decoupling from 2002 to 2007,while the decoupling state of those most were expansive coupling and expansive negative decouplingduring 2007-2012.The construction industry had a similar situation.Additionally,the power industry in each province achieved decoupling from two perspectives during 2007-2012.From the perspective of consumption,investment,and exports,the decoupling of exports and investment in the downstream area has improved in 2007-2012.The decoupling of investment in the middle and upstream areas tended to worsen,and the decoupling of exports has not improved significantly.