日照市生态足迹时间演变特征及影响因素分析

Analyses of Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Ecological Footprint in Rizhao City

基于生态足迹计量模型,对日照市1994—2017年生态足迹变化轨迹及生态压力变化特征进行测算分析;采用弹性系数法,对生态足迹影响因素进行剖析。结果显示:日照市生态足迹构成中化石燃料用地占比逐年增加,2008年开始成为占比最高的用地类型;人均生态足迹呈现波动上升态势,人均生态承载力变化较小,生态赤字明显,呈现出较为明显的阶段变化特征;研究期内,生态足迹的主要驱动因素为第二产业比重,抑制因素为第三产业比重,且主要驱动因素与抑制因素伴随人均生态足迹的阶段变化而存在一定差别。合理控制人口增长、提高人口素质,建构生态文明、减少化石能源的使用、提高不可再生资源的循环利用率,发展第三产业、促进产业结构转型升级,是保障日照市生态足迹稳定、实现可持续发展的关键。

In the study,the variation track of ecological footprint and the change feature of ecological pressure of Rizhao City from 1994 to 2017 were calculated and analyzed by the ecological footprint measurement model,and the factors influencing ecological footprint were dissected by the elastic coefficient method.The results showed that the proportion of fossil fuels in the ecological footprint of Rizhao City increased year by year,and it began to become the one with highest proportion since 2008.The per capita ecological footprint showed an fluctuant upward trend,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity changed little,while the ecological deficit changed significantly,which showed obvious stage change characteristics.During the study period,the main driving factor of ecological footprint was the proportion of the secondary industry,and the main inhibitory factor was the proportion of the tertiary industry,and the main driving factors and inhibitors were different with the stage change of per capita ecological footprint.Reasonable control of population growth,improvement of population quality,construction of ecological civilization,reduction of fossil energy use,improvement of resource recycling rate,development of the tertiary industry and promotion of industrial structure transformation and upgrading were the key to ensuring the stability of ecological footprint of Rizhao City and achieving sustainable development.