赣州市住宅房产价格时空演变特征分析

Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of residential property prices in Ganzhou city

以赣州市居民住宅2009-2017年的房产交易数据为基础,利用空间自相关分析和Kriging(克里金)插值方法,开展房价的时空演变特征分析并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:赣州市房地产市场的开发呈现出一种波动式的增长变化趋势,房价在9年时间翻了近3倍,总体上呈现正相关且集聚趋势越加显著,高高集聚主要分布在万象城附近、低低集聚主要分布在沙河镇区域。在部分区域由于发展不平衡存在空间异质性,同时房价受建筑特征、邻里特征、区位特征、城市重心变化以及国家政策等因素的影响,其中政府宏观调控对房价的影响较大。

The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of housing prices and the influencing factors are analyzed based on the real estate transaction data of Ganzhou City from 2009 to 2017 by adopting the spatial autocorrelation analysis and Kriging interpolation method. The results show that the development of the real estate market in Ganzhou presents a fluctuating trend of growth and change. The housing prices have nearly tripled in nine years, showing a positive correlation and agglomeration trend. On the whole, there is a positive correlation and the agglomeration trend is more and more significant. High agglomeration mainly distributes near the MIXC mall, while low agglomeration mainly distributes in Shahezhen area. In some regions, due to the imbalance of development, there is spatial heterogeneity. At the same time, housing prices are affected by building characteristics, neighborhood characteristics, location characteristics, changes of urban center and national policies, among which the government’s macro-control has a greater impact on housing prices.