再论中国金融资产结构及政策含义

Revisiting China s Financial Asset Structure and Policy Implications

金融资产结构是研究金融发展的重要视角。笔者曾在1996年和2008年对中国金融资产结构进行比较分析。在前期工作基础上,本文继续定位于比较金融研究,对过去十几年来中国金融资产结构的最新变化进行分析,并从资源配置和风险承担角度,以“谁在承担风险”和“由谁承担风险更好”为主线,测度金融资产风险承担者的分布,揭示其背后的原因及相关经济运行模式的变化。本文试图把金融结构、金融发展与经济增长三者关联起来,通过金融资产结构变化这个视角,阐释中国宏观经济运行的内在逻辑。研究发现,过去十多年来中国宏观杠杆率上升较快,金融资产风险向银行部门集中。针对这一问题,须着力稳住宏观杠杆率,通过改革开放发展直接融资,让市场主体能够自我决策、自担风险并获得相应收益,由此在保持杠杆率基本稳定的同时,增强金融对实体经济的支持力度,提升金融资源的配置效率。

Financial asset structure provides an important vantage point to look into the financial development.While being a reflection of the economic structure,financial asset structure also shapes it.Following Yi(1996)and Yi et al.(2008),this paper studies the change of financial asset structure in China in the past decade and its implications on resource allocation and risk sharing,which may shed light on the inherent logic of China's macroeconomic operation and make implications for appropriate policies.According to the estimation in this paper,China's total financial assets more than quadrupled in absolute size and grew by nearly 200 percentage points in its proportion to GDP from 2007 to 2018,reflecting continuous progress in financial deepening and the support provided to the real economy by the financial sector.Meanwhile,the structure of financial assets changed significantly.In particular,the share of direct financing(mainly through capital markets)declined,the proportion of bank loans grew,off-balance sheet and wealth management assets expanded rapidly and the overall macro leverage ratio(debt to GDP ratio)nearly doubled in the past decade.The paper argues that the changes in financial asset structure are reflections of structural changes in the real economy.After the global financial crisis in 2008,as domestic demand played a more important role in driving economic growth,China's economy became increasingly reliant on credit-driven growth.While the rise of debt leverage was to some extent inevitable during this process,the rapid expansion of credit related to the government and the real estate sector,mostly financed by banks,was also evident,creating a self-reinforcing mechanism that could result in excess capacity,real estate bubble and growing debt leverage.The above changes imply growing risks that concentrate on banks,most of which may ultimately be borne by the government.Such a shift of financing instruments towards bank loans and increased concentration of risks to the banking sector are hardly desirable.In fact,decentralized decision-making and broad risk-sharing across economic entities are essential characteristics of a market-oriented economy,and can promote a more efficient economic system and a more robust financial system.We have already recognized that it is no longer sustainable to boost economic growth through excessive debt expansion.Instead,while refraining from strong stimulus policies,policy makers put emphasis on the supply-side structural reform to promote adjustments of the economic structure,and to achieve high-quality development.As a result,important progress has been made in enhancing the stability of financial system and the increase of overall leverage ratio has moderated significantly during 2017 to 2019.Going forward,policies should aim to allow the financial sector to provide sufficient support to the real economy while avoiding continuous rapid rise in the macro leverage and systemic risks that may follow.The paper makes three policy recommendations.First,leverage ratio at the macro level should be stabilized,which requires macroeconomic policies to strike a right balance between supporting growth and preventing risks.To this end,it is necessary to stay within the domain of conventional monetary policy for a period as long as possible.Second,direct financing needs further development through reform and opening up.Direct financing,especially equity financing,can lessen the reliance on bank loans,support the real economy,improve risk sharing while helping stabilize the leverage ratio.It is necessary to accelerate the reform of registration-based initial public offerings,and improve the transparency of capital markets,so that investors can determine how much risks to take and enjoy the corresponding returns.Third,potential risks,including those associated with the sequence of reform and opening up,individual financial institutions and the real estate sector,must be well managed.