新常态下技术进步和要素投入对农业经济增长的影响--基于四川省的分析与预测

The Impact of Technological Progress and Factor Input on Agricultural Economic Growth under the New Normal--Based on the Analysis and Predication of Sichuan Province

农业是国民经济持续增长的重要基础,技术进步和要素投入对农业经济增长具有强大支撑。通过运用C-D函数和索洛余值法对西南地区唯一粮食主产区四川省"十五"到"十三五"前期农业科技贡献率进行测算,分析技术进步和要素投入在农业发展中的具体作用,并构建基于灰色系统理论的GM (1,1)模型,对"十三五"后期农业科技贡献率进行预测。结果显示:物质费用投入是四川省农业经济增长最主要来源,农业科技进步是第二大动力因素,劳动力变化是阻力致因,土地投入是潜在推动因素,未来四川省农业发展对科技的依赖性将会进一步增加。因此,需要强化科技支撑,促进农业生产集约化、现代化;完善农村公共服务体系,提升农业劳动力综合素质;保护现有耕地,积极治理农业面源污染。

Agriculture is an important force for the sustained growth of national economy,technological progress and factor input have great support for agricultural economic growth.This paper uses C-D function and Solow residual method to measure the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology during the 10 th to the early period of the 13 th Five-Year Plan of Sichuan Province,which is the only main grain producing area in southwest China,analyzes what specific roles do technological progress and factor input play in the agricultural development of Sichuan Province,and then Constructs the the GM(1,1)model based on the grey system theory to predict the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology in the late period of 13 th Five-Year Plan.The results show that as for Sichuan Province,material cost input is the most principal source of agricultural economic growth,agricultural scientific and technological progress is the second largest driving factor,labor force change is the cause of resistance,and land input is a potential driving factor.Moreover,the dependence of agricultural development in Sichuan Province on science and technology will further increase in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen agricultural science and technology to accelerate the intensification and modernization of agricultural production,promote the comprehensive quality of agricultural labor force by improving the rural public service system,protect the existing cultivated land and control agricultural non-point source pollution actively.