未来气候变化情景下中国橡胶主产区内植被净初级生产力预估

Prediction of Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Main Rubber Areas of China under Future Climate Change

气候变化影响生态系统的最重要表现之一是引起植被净初级生产力(NPP)的变化。全球气候变暖对中国天然橡胶树种植区内植被NPP的影响值得深入研究。根据1981-2010全国气候数据和RCP4.5情景的气候预估数据,基于气候植被NPP模型,对1981-2010、2041-2060、2061-2080年中国天然橡胶种植区内NPP变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)随着气候变暖,天然橡胶种植区内NPP呈现整体先增加后略减小趋势,其中1981-2010年研究区内植被年平均NPP为12.89 tC/hm^2;2041-2060年研究区内植被年平均NPP为15.07 tC/hm^2;2061-2080年研究区内植被年平均NPP为15.01 tC/hm^2;(2)从空间分布上看,不同时期的NPP的高值区主要集中分布在海南岛的东部沿海,广东的信宜、电白,广西的东兴,云南的景洪、勐腊等地;低值区主要分布在云南的临沧、屏边以北,海南岛的西部沿海,广东的徐闻等地。相关结果可为相关部门制定天然橡胶适应未来气候变化的决策提供依据。

One of the most important manifestations of climate change affecting ecosystems is the change of net primary productivity(NPP) of vegetation. Under the background of global warming, how much the net primary productivity of vegetation in natural rubber tree planting areas in China is affected needs to be studied. Based on the national climate data from 1981 to 2010 and the climate prediction data of RCP 4.5 scenario, and the net primary productivity model of climate vegetation, the NPP changes in natural rubber planting areas in China were analyzed from 1981 to 2010, 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080. With climate warming, NPP in the natural rubber planting areas increased first and then decreased slightly. The annual average NPP of vegetation in the study area was 12.89 tC/hm^2 from 1981 to 2010, 15.07 tC/hm^2 from 2041 to 2060, and 15.01 tC/hm^2 from 2061 to 2080. In spatial distribution, the high value areas of NPP in different periods were mainly distributed in the eastern coast of Hainan, Xinyi, Dianbai, Dongxing of Guangxi, Jinghong and Mengla of Yunnan, and the areas of low value of NPP were mainly distributed in Lincang, north of Pingbian of Yunnan, west coast of Hainan and Xuwen of Guangdong. Relevant results could provide making decisions on the adaptation of rubber to future climate change.