中国与“一带一路”参与国的贸易潜力研究:以最终消费品进口为例

Trade Potential Between China and Participating Countries of"Belt and Road":Take Imports of Final Consumption Products

本文运用随机前沿引力模型研究了2002—2017年中国从“一带一路”参与国进口最终消费品的贸易效率和贸易潜力,而后构建贸易非效率模型,从双边制度差异的角度分析了影响贸易潜力实现的因素,并基于此探讨了中国作为“一带一路”参与国最终消费品市场提供者的地位与前景。研究发现:样本期内中国与“一带一路”参与国的经济发展规模对中国进口最终消费品具有显著的正向影响;地理距离是抑制中国进口贸易的主要因素。中国与“一带一路”参与国的文化差异对中国从其进口最终消费品具有一定的促进作用;政治制度差异对中国从其进口最终消费品具有一定的抑制作用。整体而言,中国从“一带一路”参与国进口最终消费品的贸易效率很低,但近些年有上升趋势。现阶段,中国从“一带一路”参与国进口最终消费品的增长速度较快,且面临的贸易阻力逐年下降。我们认为未来中国具有为“一带一路”参与国提供广阔最终消费品市场的巨大潜力。

Through stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper researched China's trade potential of importing final consumption products from participating countries of"Belt and Road"from 2002 to 2017.Then,the non-efficiency model of trade is established.From the bilateral institutional differences,factors affecting the realization of trade potential is analyzed,and based on that,the position and prospect of China as the market provider for final consumption products of participating countries of"Belt and Road"are discussed.It's found in the research that:during the sample period,the economic development scale of China and the countries of"Belt and Road"have notable influence to China's importing of the final consumption products and geographical distance is the main factor suppressing China's import trade.The cultural distance between China and participating countries of"Belt and Road"have positive influence on China's trade efficiency of importing the final consumption products.The political institutional distance have inhibiting effect on China's trade efficiency of importing the final consumption products.On the whole,China's trade efficiency of importing final consumption products from participating countries of"Belt and Road"is low.But it has been an upward trend in recent years.China's imports of final consumption products from the participating countries of"Belt and Road"are growing at a faster rate,and the trade resistance faced is declining year by year.Therefore,in the future,China has enormous potential of providing market for final consumption products of the participating countries of"Belt and Road".