中国的经济增长属于“利润拉动”还是“工资拉动”?——再测功能性收入分配对我国需求增长与结构的影响

Is China's Economic Growth"Profit-Led"or"Wage-Led"?A Re-estimation of the Demand Growth and Structure Effects of Functional Income Distribution in China

本文通过发展后凯恩斯学派的Bhaduri-Marglin模型,利用1978—2016年的全国时间序列数据,依次估计了提升劳动收入份额对居民消费、固定资本形成、出口与进口增长的影响,并对改革开放以来劳动收入份额演变对我国经济增长与需求结构的影响进行了事后核算,对继续提升劳动收入份额的影响做了事前预测。通过综合比较不同估计方法、模型设置的结果,本文发展了以往研究的结论:我国经济最迟在2003—2004年经历了“区制转换”,由之前的“利润拉动的增长”(profit-led growth)转变为“工资拉动的增长”(wageled growth);当前提升劳动收入份额对居民消费增长的促进作用超过其对投资和净出口的抑制作用,因而能在提升居民消费率的同时促进经济更快增长。不过这一促进作用会随着劳动收入份额的提升而递减,消费率的外生性提高则正向调节这一促进作用。当前我国经济面临的一系列结构性问题源于劳动收入份额下降导致的内生需求不足进而对外生需求刺激的依赖;实现“稳增长、调结构、转方式”的关键在于供给侧结构性改革、收入分配调节与内生需求创造的协同。

By developing Post-Keynesian Bhaduri-Marglin model,the paper estimates the impact of elevating labor share on growth of household consumption,fixed asset formation,export and import,using 1978—2016 national time series data,followed by an ex-post accounting of the demand growth and structure effects of labor share changes since Reform and Opening,and an ex-ante forecast of the above effects of rising labor share in the near future.By comparing results of different estimation strategies and model specifications,the paper revises conclusions of previous researches:China economy had undergone"regime switch"at latest by 2003—2004,from"profit-led growth"to"wage-led growth".At present,the promotion effect to household consumption growth of rising labor share overweighs its adverse effect to investment and net export growth,hence rising labor share can promote economic growth overall,while improving consumption rate.The structural problems faced by China nowadays root in endogenous demand deficit caused by declining labor share and reliance on external stimulus.The key to"stabilize growth,adjust structure,and transform development pattern"is to realize synergy of supply-side structural reform,income distribution adjustment and endogenous demand creation.