东北地区不同降水保证率下玉米水分亏缺和干旱强度分析

Analysis of maize water deficit and drought intensity under different precipitation guarantee rates in Northeastern China

分析了春玉米在播种期、苗期、拔节吐丝期和灌浆期降水保证率分别为75%、50%和25%情况下水分需求盈亏,以及各生长发育期的干旱强度和干旱气候风险。结果显示,在各发育期保证率为75%的情况下,东北大部地区降水不能满足玉米水分需求,4个发育期的亏缺量分别为10~40、10~80、10~130 mm和10~130 mm;在保证率为50%的情况下,东北地区西部玉米4个发育期水分亏缺量分别为0~30、0~50、0~80 mm和0~80 mm,且拔节吐丝期和灌浆期在黑龙江东部也存在0~30 mm的水分亏缺;在保证率为25%的情况下,仅播种期和灌浆期在吉林西部、黑龙江松嫩平原西南部和辽宁西部局地存在0~50 mm的水分亏缺。1981-2016年,东北地区西部和三江平原部分地区在玉米4个发育期最大干旱强度均可达到4级,强度值分别为10.01~17.20、7.83~24.70、5.81~17.50和5.76~18.70;2000年玉米拔节吐丝期辽宁西部和黑龙江西部的部分地区干旱强度达10.01~17.40。2014年玉米播种期黑龙江松嫩平原西北部、吉林白城西部以及辽宁部分地区干旱强度达10.01~15.60。东北地区西部玉米4个发育期干旱风险都相对较高,且黑龙江东部在播种期、拔节吐丝期和灌浆期也会出现较高干旱风险。根据上述分析,可将东北地区玉米干旱防灾减灾工作分为四级区域,按照不同生长阶段水分盈亏特点和干旱风险合理安排玉米生产管理。

In this paper,water deficit under conditions of 75%,50%,and 25%of precipitation guarantee rate at sowing,seedling,jointing,and filling stage of spring maize,and also drought intensity and drought climate risk at each stage were analyzed.The results showed that under 75%of precipitation guarantee rate,precipitation could not meet the water demand of maize at all 4 growth stages throughout Northeastern China,and water deficit was about 10~40 mm,10~80 mm,10~130 mm,and 10~130 mm,respectively.Under 50%of precipitation guarantee rate,water deficit was about 0~30 mm,0~50 mm,0~80 mm,and 0~80 mm at 4 growth stages,respectively in western part of Northeastern China,while it was about 0~30 mm in eastern area of Heilongjiang Province at jointing and filling stage.Under 25%of precipitation guarantee rate,only water deficit of 0~50 mm appears at sowing and filling stages in partial area of Western Jilin,Southwest of Songnen Plain in Heilongjiang Province and Western Liaoning.From 1981 to 2016,the maximum drought intensity at four growth stages of spring maize could reach 4 in western part of Northeastern China and some area of Sanjiang Plain in Heilongjiang Province,with the intensity values of 10.01~17.20,7.83~24.70,5.81~17.50,and 5.76~18.70.In 2000,the drought intensity reached 10.01~17.40 at jointing stage in western part of Liaoning and Heilongjiang Province.In 2014,the drought intensity reached 10.01~15.60 at sowing stage in Northwest of Songnen Plain in Heilongjiang Province,Western Baicheng of Jilin and partial area of Liaoning.The drought climate risk was higher at 4 maize growth stages in Western part of northeastern China,and there was also a higher drought risk in eastern area of Heilongjiang Province at sowing,jointing,and filling stages.According to the analysis above,the drought resistant management of spring maize in Northeastern China could be divided into four regions,and in each region maize production and drought resistance strategy could be reasonably arranged according to the water deficit characteristics and drought risk at different growth stages.