壳牌对未来车用能源多元化发展趋势的思考

Shell’s view on future mobility fuels:A patchwork,or“mosaic”approach will be needed to address societies energy needs

面对能源短缺和环境污染的双重挑战,交通领域的转型升级不可避免。本文结合未来车用动力系统的发展趋势,对交通运输领域中应用的多种先进动力系统、清洁能源及替代燃料进行综述和评价,包括目前主要使用的传统液态化石燃料即汽、柴油及先进内燃机技术,清洁替代燃料(如生物燃料、天然气合成油(GTL)燃料、电转液(PTL)燃料、液化天然气(LNG)等),以及电气化动力系统(包括混合动力、纯电动和燃料电池)等,并着重讨论液体燃料。壳牌认为没有一种单一的解决方案可以解决复杂的能源问题,未来交通能源结构将呈现多种能源并存的特点,并分别适用于不同的场景。该文还介绍了壳牌近期基于不同政治、经济和社会发展程度提出的3种远景(壳牌“高山”、“海洋”和“天空”远景),提出壳牌对未来车用能源领域转型脱碳发展情景的思考。

Facing the dual challenge of increased energy demand and emission reduction,the transition in transport and mobility is inevitable.This paper reviews and evaluates multiple advanced powertrain systems and alternative fuel options,in combination with future powertrain developing trend.These include conventional liquid fossil fuels(i.e.gasoline and diesel)and enabling advanced internal combustion engine technologies,clean alternative fuels[e.g.biofuels,gas-to-liquid(GTL)fuels,power-to-liquid(PTL)fuels,liquified nature gas(LNG)etc],and electrified powertrains(incl.hybrid,battery electric and fuel cells).Fuel options in liquid state is focused.Shell believes there’s no single option able to tackle the complex energy challenge,and thus a mosaic of new fuels and powertrains,applied in different applications respectively,will be needed.We will also introduce 3 Shell scenarios published recently based on analysis of different political,economic and social trajectories,namely Shell Mountain,Ocean and Sky Scenarios,followed by Shell’s view on transition and decarbonization in transport sector.