2017-2018年闽近地面臭氧污染对人群健康的影响

Human health impact of exposure to surface ozone pollution in Fujian Province during 2017-2018

目的探讨闽近地面臭氧污染对人群健康的影响。方法选取2017—2018年福建50个代表性监测点,运用泊松广义相加模型时间序列方法分析O3暴露对闽人群各死因的健康风险及置信区间95%CI。结果2017—2018年近地面O3浓度升高(lag2)10μg/m^3研究区域人群非意外总死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡风险分别增加0.57%[95%CI(0.40%,0.74%)]和0.55%[95%CI(0.28%,0.83%)],调整PM10共存污染物的影响后分别降至0.47%[95%CI(0.28%,0.66%)]和0.35%[95%CI(0.04%,0.66%)],仍有统计学意义;全省冬季风险最高,但区域之间存在效应异质性(P=0.043和P=0.008),体现在沿海的效应明显,分别为0.87%[95%CI(0.32%,1.42%)]和1.23%[95%CI(0.18%,2.27%)],而山区则无统计学意义;全省秋季和夏季效应都无统计学意义。脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险在调整PM10共存污染物的影响后都失去统计学意义。结论2017—2018年近地面O3暴露与福建人群非意外总死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡风险增加密切相关,沿海冬季O3浓度升高滞后2天效应显著。

Objective To explore the impact of surface ozone pollution on population health.Methods A total of 50representative monitoring points in Fujian province from 2017to 2018were selected.The Poisson generalized additive model time series method were used to analyze the health risks and confidence intervals of 95%CIfor ozone exposure.Results 2017—2018 surface ozone concentration increased(lag2)10μg/m^3,the risk of non-accidental total death and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death in the study area increased by 0.57%[95%CI(0.40%,0.74%)]and 0.55%[95%CI(0.28%,0.83%)].Adjusted to the impact of particulate matter<10μm in aerodynamic diameter[PM10]coexisting pollutants,respectively reduced to 0.47%[95%CI(0.28%,0.66%)]and 0.35%[95%CI(0.04%,0.66%)],which were still statistically significant.The province had the highest winter risk,but there were effect heterogeneity between the regions(P=0.043and P=0.008),which were reflected in the coastal effect,which were 0.87%[95%CI(0.32%,1.42%)]and 1.23%[95%CI(0.18%,2.27%)],while there were no statistical correlation in the mountains.The autumn and summer effects of the province were not statistically significant.The risk of death from cerebrovascular disease and respiratory diseases lost statistical significance after adjusting for the effects of PM10coexisting pollutants.Conclusion Surface ozone exposure in 2017—2018were Closely related to the non-accidental total death and the increased risk of death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Fujian population.The coastal ozone concentration increased with a 2-day lag in winter and the effect were significant.