2019年世界和中国石化工业回顾及2020年展望

2019 Review and 2020 Prospect for World and China’s Petrochemical Industry

2019年世界基础石化产品产能增长再创新高,消费增速连续三年好于经济表现,但市场供需失衡仍在加剧,导致世界石化产品价格大幅下跌,行业营收大幅萎缩。同期,在替代、新业态、出口及基建消费拉动下,国内乙烯当量消费实现10%以上的增长,因此聚乙烯进口也大幅增长。在新增产能和进口量大增的压力下,石化产品库存全年维持高位运行,产品价格也跌至近年新低。2020年,世界石化产品供需增长放缓,北美等新增供应将持续转化为出口,进一步流入中国市场。世界石化行业盈利在2019年跌出景气区间后,或在2020年继续下探。同年,国内受新冠疫情影响,乙烯当量消费将有所下降,替代、基建等消费领域仍有增长空间。预计2020年国内石化产业整体盈利下跌幅度趋缓,产业链盈利继续向下游转移。在国内安环和信贷政策趋紧的背景下,高成本供应将面临退出挑战,行业将加速向头部集中,市场也将逐步向新平衡过渡。

In 2019, the capacity growth of world basic petrochemicals hit a record high, while the consumption growth outran the world economy for three consecutive years. However, the imbalance between supply and demand is still increasing, resulting in a sharp drop both in the price and the industry revenue. Driven by replacement, new consumption areas, export and infrastructure construction, the domestic ethylene equivalent consumption increased by more than 10%. With the increasing supply, petrochemical product inventory remained high throughout the year, while prices hit a new low of recent years. In 2020, world supply and demand of petrochemical products will slow down. While, new export will further flow into China. World petrochemical industry profit might further decrease. In the same year, domestic ethylene equivalent consumption growth will slow down, due to growing consumption from replacement, infrastructure construction. It is expected that the overall profit decline of the domestic petrochemical industry will slow down, and profits will shift to the downstream. With the nation’s tightening policies on safety, environmental protection and credit, domestic high-cost units will have to face the challenges of phasing out. The industry concentration will get improved and the market will gradually transit to a new balance.