基于SWOT-AHP模型的云南省热区农业发展战略研究

Research on Agricultural Development Strategy for Hot Area of Yunnan Province Based on SWOT-AHP Model

随着传统农业向现代农业的逐渐转型,热区农业在中国农业经济中占有重要的地位。热区农业是冬季人民基本生活的支撑,发展热区农业不仅与国家乡村振兴战略相契合,还有利于“一带一路”国家之间的农业合作。采用定性与定量结合的方法,建立SWOT-AHP模型,从云南省热区农业发展现状出发,分析云南省热区农业发展的优势、劣势、机遇、威胁4个维度的测度变量,计算各个维度的权重,并比较分析各方面的优先次序,进而绘制热区农业发展战略四边形,定位重心P所在象限,并建立有序数对B,根据重心P和有序数对B所在象限确定云南省热区农业的具体发展战略。云南热区农业发展战略四边形重心位于第一象限[0,π/4),方位角为25°,属于开拓型战略区的实力型,且战略强度系数ρ>0.5,故云南省热区农业应采取积极的开拓型发展战略。建议云南省热区农业发展充分利用地理区位优势,大力发展热区时差农业,打造热区品牌农业,推动热区外向型农业发展。

With the gradual transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, agriculture in hot areas is now playing an important role in China’s agricultural economy. Agriculture in hot areas is the support of people’s basic life in winter. The development of agriculture in hot areas is not only in line with the national rural revitalization strategy, but also conducive to the agricultural cooperation among "the Belt and Road" countries. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, a SWOT-AHP model was established, based on the status quo of agricultural development in hot spots of Yunnan province, the measurement variables of the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities, and threats of agricultural development in the hot areas of Yunnan province were analyzed, the weights of each dimension in the calculation were calculated, and the comparative analysis on various aspects of priorities was done, then the hotspot quadrilateral was drawn, agricultural development strategy positioning center P in the quadrant was located, the order number for B was established, according to the center of gravity P and order number in quadrant B, the specific development strategy of hot area agriculture in Yunnan was determined. the quadrilateral agricultural development strategy gravity of Yunnan hot area was located in the first quadrant [0,π/4), with an azimuth angle of 25°, it belonged to the strength type of the pioneering strategic area, and its strategic intensity coefficient ρ>0.5, so actively pioneering development strategy should be taken in Yunnan province. It was suggested that the agricultural development of hot area in Yunnan province should make full use of the geographic location advantages, vigorously develop time lag agriculture, create brand agriculture, and promote the development of outward-oriented agriculture in hot area.