房地产业对中国经济真的那么重要吗?

Does Real Estate Really Matter to China's Economy?Multiplier Decomposition and Structural Path Analysis Based on Chinese Social Accounting Matrices 2002,2007 and 2012

为恰当评估房地产业对中国经济的重要性,通过编制2002、2007和2012年中国社会核算矩阵,进行乘数分解和结构化路径分析的结果表明:房地产业对行业总产出、劳动力和资本报酬、居民和企业收入的拉动作用极低.房地产业主要对金融业、租赁和商务服务业、建筑业以及金属冶炼与压延加工业四个行业的产出影响比较显著,对前三个行业主要是直接的一步式影响,与房地产业紧密相关的产业链条并不长.房地产业对要素报酬和机构收入的拉动总效应极小,且主要是开环效应,与此同时,房地产业主要通过自身和金融业影响要素报酬进而影响机构收入,特别是对资本报酬和企业收入的影响简单、直接,高度依赖这两条基础路径.土地出让金和房地产有关税收已成为地方政府的主要收入来源.房地产开发和运营商、金融机构和地方政府已成为房地产业发展过程中最主要的利益相关方.

With the objective of evaluating the importance of the real estate on China’s economy correctly,this paper compiles Chinese Social Accounting Matrices 2002,2007 and 2012.The results of multiplier decomposi-tion and structural path analysis show that the driving effects of real estate on Chinese total industrial output,the income of labor and capital,the income of resident and enterprise are extremely insignificant.The driving effects of real estate on the output of finance,renting and leasing,business services,construction,manufacture and processing of metals are significant on some level.Furthermore,paths of real estate’s driving effects on the first three industries’output are of direct one-step styles.The close industrial chain of real estate is short.The total driving effects of real estate on the income of factor and institutional accounts are very limited,though the open loop driving effects are increasing.Meanwhile,paths of effect are going through real estate itself and finance sec-tor.Especially the driving effects on capital and enterprise accounts are simple and direct,relying on these two paths.Land rents and taxes from real estate are the primary income sources for local governments.Property developers and operators,financial institutions and local governments are the main stakeholders in this sector.