前景理论视域下中日韩FTA建设的动力与挑战

Analysis on the Impetus and Challenges of CJK FTA from the Perspective of Prospect Theory

中日韩FTA谈判中,三方在"获取收益"目标下更加关注合作利益分配问题,致使协定难以取得突破。在美国贸易保护主义政策导致全球经济不确定因素增加、中日韩遭受利益损失的情况下,合作抵御贸易保护主义、缓解来自美国的谈判压力、巩固区域经济一体化利益成为三国共同诉求",避免损失"的新合作动力逐渐形成。然而,历史分歧、政治矛盾、外部干扰等障碍性因素对中日韩FTA建设构成现实挑战,中国应从战略视角出发发挥积极作用,推动谈判取得突破,日韩也应结合国际形势的变化采取更加务实、灵活的策略。

In international cooperation,when a country may suffer losses,profit maximization is no longer the absolute goal of its cooperation.As long as the cooperation is expected to reduce losses,countries tend to grasp the cooperation opportunities and try to avoid greater losses.Since China,Japan and the ROK launched FTA negotiation,the three parties have paid more attention to the distribution of cooperation interests with the goal of"obtaining benefits",resulting in the lack of motivation for negotiations and the delay in making breakthroughs on the agreement.As the trade protectionism policy of the Trump administration speeds up FTA negotiations to cooperate to resist the trade protectionism,ease the pressure of high-standard trade negotiations with the United States,the overall interests of regional economic integration become the common goal of the three countries.As a result,CJKFTA has generated new impetus for negotiations guided by"loss avoidance".However,historical and political contradictions make the CJKFTA face new challenges.China should play an active role in promoting breakthroughs in the negotiations from a strategic perspective,and Japan and the Rok should adopt more pragmatic and flexible strategies in light of the changes in the international situation.