数字连接对投资发展路径理论的影响与修正:中国的经验

The Impact of Digital Connection on Investment Development Path and Its Modification:Evidence from Chinese Case

基于1980-2018年中国FDI存量时间序列及2004-2017年31省(直辖市、自治区)面板数据,本文在检验投资发展路径(IDP)理论适用性的基础上,实证研究了数字连接对中国FDI发展路径的影响。研究表明,数字贸易时代IDP理论仍具有适用性,中国已进入IDP的第4阶段初期,超前于经济发展水平。研究认为,数字连接总体上对IDP有显著的调节效应,在经济发达地区显著的直接影响表现为负向;数字连接增大IDP曲线波动幅度和不对称性,使较平缓的曲线变为非对称的不规则曲线。

Based on the time series data of Chinese FDI stock from 1980 to 2018 and the panel data of 31 provinces and provincial level administrative regions in China(inclusive of municipalities directly under the central government,and autonomous regions)during the period 2004-2017,this paper empirically studies the impact of digital connection on the Chinese FDI development path after testing that the IDP theory is still applicable to FDI in China.The results show that IDP is still applicable in the digital trade era,and China has entered the early stage 4 of IDP,which is ahead of the economic development.The paper also demonstrates that digital connection has a significant moderating effect on IDP as a whole,and a significant directly negative effect on developed regions.Digital connection will increase the fluctuation and asymmetry of IDP curve,and change the relatively flat curve to an asymmetric irregular fluctuation one.The findings also challenge IDP and put forward useful suggestions to promote FDI.