“一带一路”科技创新合作促进城市产业升级——基于PSM-DID 方法的实证研究

“Belt and Road ”Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation Promotes the City Industrial Upgrading: An Empirical Test Based on PSM-DID

采用281个地级市2008至2017年的经济面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和双重差分法(DID)检验“一带一路”科技创新合作对节点城市产业升级的影响。结果表明,“一带一路”科技创新合作对节点城市产业合理化有显著的促进作用,但是对产业结构高级化作用不显著。此外,相比沿海节点城市,“一带一路”区域科技合作对内陆节点城市产业结构转型升级的作用更明显。政策机制甄别结果显示,对外贸易、人均收入和财政支出促进了“一带一路”科技合作战略对节点城市产业结构合理化的影响,金融发展水平会显著促进节点城市产业高级化程度。

Based on the panel data of 281 cities in China's Mainland from 2008 to 2017,this paper studied the effect of the“Belt and Road”scientific and technological innovation cooperation on industrial upgrading of the core cities along the Belt and Road by using the methods of propensity score matching(PSM)and difference-in-difference(DID).The conclusions show that:the cooperation has a significant effect on the industrial structure rationality of the core city along the Belt and Road.However,it does not contribute to the high-class effect of the industrial structure.Besides,comparing with the coastal core cities,the cooperation has a stronger effect on the industrial upgrading of inland core cities.After identifying the policy mechanisms,we find that foreign trade,per-capita income and fiscal expenditure enhance the influence of the“Belt and Road”scientific innovation cooperation on the rationality level of the industrial structure.In the meantime,financial development promotes the high-class effect of the industrial structure.