广西北部湾经济区2016—2018年沙门菌血清种类的区位熵模型和偏离-份额分析法模型分析

LQ and SSM analysis of Salmonella serum species in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi,2016-2018

目的通过分析广西北部湾经济区食源性和人源沙门菌的空间分布和增长情况,为预防和控制沙门菌引起的疾病提供科学参考。方法以北部湾经济区为研究区域,采用2016—2018年的沙门菌血清种类数据,通过构建区位熵(LQ)模型和偏离-份额分析法(SSM)模型,有效获取沙门菌的区位熵和区域增长份额、沙门菌构成偏离份额和区位偏离份额的数值。结果根据LQ模型,北部湾经济区沙门菌的区位熵大于1的种类有两种:鼠伤寒沙门菌(区位熵为1.05)和肠炎沙门菌(区位熵为1.19)。根据SSM模型,北部湾经济区鼠伤寒沙门菌的总偏离量为23.50株,肠炎沙门菌的总偏离量为4.18株,增长速度均快于广西沙门菌总体的增长速度。结论北部湾经济区沙门菌区域集聚水平比较高的种类是鼠伤寒沙门菌和肠炎沙门菌。北部湾经济区鼠伤寒沙门菌和肠炎沙门菌具备种类优势且具有很强的增长趋势。

Objective The purpose of the paper was to analyze the spatial distribution and growth of food-borne and human Salmonella in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,so as to provide scientific reference for prevention and control of diseases caused by Salmonella.Methods It took the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the research area and used the data of Salmonella serum species from 2016 to 2018.It constructed the location quotient(LQ)model and the shift-share-analysis method(SSM)model,so as to effectively obtain the location quotient and the regional growth share,Salmonella composition deviation share and location deviation share of Salmonella.Results According to the LQ model,there were two kinds of Salmonella in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone whose location quotients were greater than 1.The location quotient of Salmonella typhimurium was 1.05 while the location quotient of Salmonella enteritidis was 1.19.According to the SSM model,the total deviation of Salmonella typhimurium were 23.50 strains while the total deviation of Salmonella enteritidis were 4.18 strains.The growth rate of Salmonella typhimurium and Salmonella enteritidis were faster than the growth rate of Salmonella population in Guangxi.Conclusion Salmonella typhimurium and Salmonella enteritidis were high-level regional agglomeration species in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.Salmonella typhimurium and Salmonella enteritidis in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone had species advantages and strong growth trend.