山东经济增长中的结构调整效应分解与路径分析--基于新旧动能转换的视角

Structural Adjustment Effect Decomposition and Path Analysis in the Economic Growth of Shandong--Based on the Perspective of New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion

以山东省目前面临新旧动能转换的机遇和挑战为背景,基于两部门经济增长模型,利用2006~2016年山东17个地市的统计数据,运用动态空间面板模型对产业结构调整和生产率提升对山东省经济增长的影响做了实证分析。研究结论显示,山东省的经济发展存在明显的空间溢出效应,产业结构调整和全要素生产率提升是山东经济发展的重要动力。山东省要实现经济增长应更多的依赖于全要素生产率的增长,因其既能促进经济增长又可以化解产业结构调整的负面作用;还应慎重的进行产业结构高级化调整,使其与全要素生产率协调发展。

Shandong Province is currently facing opportunities and challenges in the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.The dynamic spatial panel model is used to take an empirical analysis of the impact of industrial structure adjustment and improvement of Total factor productivity(TFP)of 17 cities of Shandong province in 2006-2016.Research concluded that there was a significant spatial spillover effect in the economic development,and industrial restructuring and total factor productivity improvement were important sources of economic development in Shandong Province.Furthermore,the growth of Shandong should rely more on the growth of total factor productivity,because it can both promote economic growth and resolve the negative effects of industrial restructuring.Adjustment of industrial structure should be carried out with caution.It should be coordinated with the TFP.