出生时五运六气特点与疾病发生的相关性研究的科研方法学探讨

Analysis of Methodological Status of Research for Correlation of Characteristics of Five-element Motions and Six Climatic Factors at Birth with Incidence of Diseases

整理并分析了近年来出生时五运六气(运气)特点与疾病发生(发病率)的相关性研究文献中的科研方法学概况,认为该类研究在研究方案设计及统计分析方面存在一定的问题。研究方案设计方面存在的问题表现为研究方法选择不合理,对照组设置不合理,研究未进行配对,未进行样本量估算等;统计分析方面存在的问题表现为统计方法选择有误及结局指标测量有误。为提高该领域研究结果的的科学性及证据级别,建议采用分析性研究中的病例-对照研究,合理设置对照组和估算样本量;研究无法进行配对时,对照组例数与病例组例数的比值不宜超过4∶1;建议采用多因素Logistic回归分析进行数据的分析;采用相对危险度、比值比、可信区间等作为结局测量指标,以此来衡量暴露因素与结局之间的关联程度。通过采用严谨的科研设计及应用正确的统计学方法,可保证研究结果的科学性和可靠性。

The methodological status of the research for the correlation of characteristics of five-element motions and six climatic factors at birth with the incidence of diseases in recent years was reviewed and analyzed.The results showed that certain problems existed in the research design and statistical methods of the research.The problems about the research design manifested as improper research methods,improper establishment of control group,non-matching of cases in the trial,and failure in the estimation of sample size.The problems about statistical methods of the research manifested as the wrong usage of statistical methods and wrong outcome measurement.To enhance the scientific value and the degree of the evidence,it is suggested that case-control study can be adopted,the establishment of control group and the estimation of sample size should be correct,the ratio of the sample size of the control group and case group should not exceed 4∶1 when the trial fails in the case matching,multivariate logistic regression analysis can be adopted for the data analysis,and the correlation of exposure factors with outcomes can be measured by relative risk,odds ratio,and confidence interval.By adopting strict research design and correct statistical methods,the scientific value and reliability of research results can be guaranteed.