Projected changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high under six global warming targets

The summer western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) has large influences on the East Asian summer climate. Many studies have focused on the projected changes in the WNPSH, but little is known about the changes under different global warming targets, such as 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. This study investigates the changes in the WNPSH under six global warming targets(1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃,3.0℃, 3.5℃, and 4.0℃) in both the mid-and lower troposphere, using the outputs of CMIP5 model in historical simulations and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The projected changes in the WNPSH, which is measured by multiple variables, show that it changes little under the 1.5℃ target in the mid-troposphere, but weakens and retreats approximately 2.5° in longitude under the 2.0℃ target. It tends to linearly weaken with warming greater than 2.5℃ and shifts eastward by approximately 6.0° in longitude by the 4.0℃ target. Meanwhile, the WNPSH intensifies and extends westward under the 1.5℃ target in the lower troposphere, but changes little with warming rising from 1.5℃ to 2.0℃. It is projected to extend westward by approximately2.0° in longitude by the 4.0℃ target.

西北太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)是影响东亚夏季天气气候的关键环流系统。本文利用CMIP5的历史气候模拟试验和RCP8.5路径下的未来气候变化预估试验数据,采用扰动位势高度,流函数等多种变量描述西太副高,分析了西太副高在6个全球变暖阈值(1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃,3.0℃, 3.5℃和4.0℃)下相对于当代气候的变化情况。在对流层中层(500 h Pa),西太副高在1.5℃阈值下几乎没有变化,而在2.0℃阈值下迅速减弱并东退约2.5°。当升温大于2.5℃时,西太副高呈线性减弱趋势,在4.0℃阈值下将东退约6.0°。在对流层低层(850 h Pa),西太副高在1.5℃阈值下增强西伸,但在升温到2.0℃的过程中变化不大。当变暖达到4.0℃阈值时,西太副高将西伸约2.0°。