论中国“能源独立”战略的内涵、挑战及意义

On the connotation,challenge and significance of China’s“energy independence”strategy

世界能源正处在从化石能源向新能源发展的'第3次重大转换期',各国都制定能源发展战略。美国通过超前部署,依靠'非常规油气革命'即将实现'能源独立'。中国能源发展面临4大挑战:人口基数和经济发展规模决定能源消费'总量大'、'富煤但油气不足'的资源结构决定能源结构'不清洁'、持续攀升的油气对外依存度决定能源供应'不安全'、非常规油气禀赋决定复制美国模式实现能源独立'不可行'。从世界能源大势与中国能源特殊性出发,开启中国'能源独立'长征路,提出'三步走'构想:①2020—2035年,依靠'洁煤稳油增气、大力发展新能源',解决'供给安全'问题;②2035—2050年,依靠'国内生产+海外权益',兑现'生产自主'愿景;③2050—2100年,依靠'新能源+智能源',有望实现中国'能源独立'。中国'能源独立'战略两个重要标志是国内生产量占消费量90%以上、清洁能源生产量占消费量70%以上,能源安全实现'长久安全'和'自主可控',战略意义是保障国家能源安全、带动相关大产业发展、实现能源管理变革、落实零碳化环保目标。中国'能源独立'是个战略性命题,随着国家实力显著提升,或许不需要国内能源生产量与消费量基本相当,就能保障能源供给与消费安全。世界新科技革命或将超出预期,中国'能源独立'梦想将如愿到来。

The world’s energy is in the'third major transformation period'from fossil energy to new energy,and all countries in the world have formulated energy development strategies.Through advanced deployment,the United States is about to achieve'energy independence'relying on'unconventional oil and gas revolution'.China’s energy development is faced with four challenges:(1)The population base and economic development scale determine the'totally huge amount'of energy consumption;(2)the'coal rich but oil and gas insufficient'resource structure determines the'unclean'energy consuming structure;(3)the increasing dependence on imported oil and gas determines the'unsafe'energy supply;and(4)the unconventional oil and gas endowment makes it impossible to achieve energy independence by copying the American model.From the perspective of the world energy trend and the unique situation of China’s energy,we put forward a'three-step'strategy for China to achieve'energy independence':From 2020 to 2035,'energy supply security'will be addressed by'cleaning coal,stabilizing oil and gas production and vigorously developing new alternative energy';from 2035 to 2050,the vision of'production independence'will be realized by relying on'domestic production and overseas oil and gas mining rights';from 2050 to 2100,'intelligent energy and new energy'will help China realize'energy independence'.The two important signs of China’s'energy independence'are that domestic production accounts for more than 90%of the domestic consumption and clean energy production accounts for more than 70%,and energy security realizes'independence and self-control'and'long-term security'.The strategic significance of'energy independence'is to ensure national energy security,drive the development of relevant major industries,achieve energy management reform,and implement the environmental protection goal of zero carbon emissions.The'energy independence'of China is a strategic mission,it might be fulfilled in the future with the growth of the state’s power,even when the domestic energy production does not catch up with the domestic consumption.Perhaps the world’s new technological revolution will exceed expectations,and China’s'energy independence'dream will eventually come true.