地方隐性债务规模的统计测度研究

Statistical Measurement of the Scale of Local Implicit Debt

通过构建一个3-1-2的MIMIC模型对我国地方隐性债务进行规模测度,结果发现:显性债务约束力度是我国出现地方隐性债务的主要成因,也是地方隐性债务风险化解的主要突破口;2003-2018年我国地方隐性债务规模呈现出明显的双倒"U"型特征,在2007年和2015年左右分别达到历史高位,2016年开始出现趋势性下降;地方隐性债务规模占GDP的比重表现出显著的下降趋势,我国隐性债务风险得到较好的管控。

Strengthening the study of local implicit debt is of great value to strictly control local disguised debt and guard against the risk of local implicit debt. By constructing a 3-1-2 MIMIC model to measure the scale of China’s local implicit debt, and finds that:(1) the binding force of explicit debt is the main cause of the emergence of local implicit debt in our country, and it is also the main breakthrough to resolve the risk of local implicit debt.;(2) during the period of 2003-2018, the scale of local recessive debt in China showed double inverted U-shaped characteristics obviously, reaching historic highs in 2007 and 2015 respectively, and tending to decline in 2016;(3) the proportion of local implicit debt to GDP shows a significant downward trend, and the risk of implicit debt in China has been well controlled.