收入差距与房地产价格泡沫:基于门槛效应研究

The Research about Income Gap and House Price Bubble: Base on Threshold Effect

基于不同收入居民对住房消费品和投资品双重属性的偏好差异,结合居民的住房偏好特性,考量收入差距对房价收入比的影响。结果显示:收入差距对房价收入比的影响存在门槛效应:低于门槛值时,影响为抑制作用;高于门槛值时,影响转为促进作用,且随着收入差距进一步的扩大效应更为明显。鉴此,应聚焦缩小收入差距,合理引导居民住房消费与投资,以有效控制我国房地产价格泡沫趋势。

Based on considering the differences of different income residents on housing, we divide the residents into two types;combine the characteristic of resident housing preference. Through theoretical derivation we conclude that the income gap has threshold effect on real estate price bubble. Then, we construct the panel smoothing transformation model, the empirical conclusion is the same with the theoretical analysis: the effect of income gap on the house price bubble exists the threshold effect. If the income gap is lower than the threshold value, the influence is inhibition effect, or else is the promotion effect, and with the further widening of the income gap the effect is more obvious. Therefore, in order to effectively control the trend of the house price bubble in China, the policy should focus on narrowing the income gap, reasonably guide their housing consumption and investment.