中国臭氧时空分布特征及与社会经济因素影响分析

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of O3 in China and Impact Analysis of Socio-economic Factors

本文根据2015~2017年中国大陆338个城市空气质量监测站臭氧(O3)浓度数据,综合利用空间插值法、全局自相关法和地理加权回归模型(GWR),探讨了O3浓度的时空变化特征及其与社会经济因素的关系。结果表明,2015~2017年中国大陆338个城市的O3日最大8小时浓度为2~300μg/m3,其中超标天数比例为5. 9%,323个城市达标率在85%以上;O3月均值变化曲线基本呈"单峰状",5月达到峰值,12月最低;O3浓度季节变化为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季;O3日变化特征为夜间到清晨O3浓度很低,上午8∶00左右开始升高,下午16∶00达到峰值;中国华北地区、华东地区和华中地区O3污染严重,华南地区、西南地区、西北地区和东北地区整体污染较低。O3浓度在全国尺度上的集聚性呈上升趋势,GWR表明,人口密度、人均私家车保有量与O3浓度显著正相关,第一产业占比与O3浓度显著负相关。

Based on concentration data of O3 from 338 urban air quality monitoring stations in China from 2015 to 2017,this paper explored characteristics of spatiotemporal distributions of O3 in China using spatial interpolation,comprehensive global autocorrelation and geographic weighted regression models( GWR). The results showed that: the maximum 8-hour concentrations of O3 at 338 cities of China in years 2015-2017 ranged from 2 to 300 μg/m3,the percentage of the standard-exceeded day was 5. 9%,and 323 cities had compliance rates of more than 85%. The curve of monthly average concentrations was a"single peak"curve with peaking in May and depressing in December. The seasonal variation of O3 concentration followed the trend of summer > spring > autumn > winter. The daily changes of O3 concentrations could be described as that the O3 concentration was at the low level from night to early morning,and began to rise around 8 ∶00 am,reached the peak at 16 ∶00 pm. The O3 pollution was serious in the north of China,the east of China and the center of China,the O3 pollution was low in the south of China,the southwest of China,the northwest of China and the northeast of China. The agglomeration of O3 concentrations was rising on the national scale,GWR showed that the O3 concentration correlated positively with the population density and the per capita private car ownership and negatively with the share of the primary industry.