“一带一路”沿线国家经济发展水平的综合评价——基于聚类分析和因子分析

Aggregate Analysis on the Economic Development of the Belt and Road Countries--Based on Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis

本文以"一带一路"沿线国家为研究对象,以各国的经济发展水平及重要宏观经济指标为依据,利用聚类分析和因子分析对"一带一路"沿线国家进行合理归并,并分析各国经济发展驱动力。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家宏观经济发展水平排名前十的国家为新加坡、卡塔尔、印度、俄罗斯、沙特、捷克、波兰、以色列、匈牙利、马来西亚;"一带一路"沿线呈现区域经济水平接近的形态,由高到低大致排列为:中东石油产出地区西欧>中亚>东南亚>南亚>巴尔干半岛;影响各国宏观经济的因子主要包括以下三个:一是国家综合产出能力、抵御风险能力和吸引外资能力三者的宏观经济实力,二是个体经济发展水平,三是经济增长潜力。

This paper aggregates the Belt and Road Countries through cluster analysis based on different countries’ economic development level, then analyzes their economic driving forces through factor analysis of important macroeconomic indicators. This paper will provide practical suggestions for Chinese enterprises when they go out to conduct overseas investment. The study found that the top ten scored countries of economic development factors include: Singapore, Qatar, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic, Poland, Israel, Hungary and Malaysia. Countries in the same region show a similar economic development level. Scored regions can be generally ranked as: Eastern Europethe Middle East>Central Asia>Southeast Asia>South Asia>Balkan Peninsula. According to factor analysis, three main factors of macroeconomic development of countries along the Belt and Road include: national economic strength combined by output capacity, capacity of resisting economic risks and capacity of attracting investment, individual living standard and economic growth potential.