中哈粮食贸易:供需、物流及便利化视角的分析

Grain Trade between China and Kazakhstan:An Analysis from the Perspectives of Supply-demand,Logistics and Facilitation

哈萨克斯坦粮食市场供需总体呈现供大于求状态,其传统贸易伙伴国市场消费量逐渐饱和,哈萨克斯坦正力图开拓新的海外粮食市场。当前中国和哈萨克斯坦粮食贸易规模非常小,本文结合中国和哈萨克斯坦两国经贸发展现实情况,重点剖析中国利用哈萨克斯坦小麦资源少的主要原因,认为小麦供给稳定性、粮食贸易便利化程度、仓储物流设施、粮食收储等因素是哈萨克斯坦粮食贸易的主要障碍,而哈萨克斯坦小麦主产区远离中国主销区、贸易成本较高、中国小麦库存量大仍需消化、新疆是粮食盈余省份、国内民营企业粮食配额数量少等因素是中国进口哈萨克斯坦粮食的主要障碍。未来完全用哈萨克斯坦小麦代替美国、澳大利亚和加拿大的小麦进口显然不可能,但是部分替代满足中国国内品种调剂是可以做到的。最关键的是中国应考虑实施优惠政策引导和鼓励中国企业在哈开展农业全产业链合作,加强两国在农业服务领域的合作,确保中哈之间建立稳定的农产品贸易与产业合作关系,助推其农业结构调整和经济多元化。

Oversupply is a main feature of Kazakhstan’s grain market.So Kazakhstan is trying to open up overseas grain markets.The current scale of China-Kazakhstan grain trade is very small.This article focuses on the main reasons why China rarely imports Kazakhstan’s wheat resources.It is believed that the stability of wheat supply,the degree of grain trade facilitation,the storage and logistics facilities,and the grain collection and storage are the main obstacles to Kazakhstan’s export to China.In addition,there are some factors influencing China’s import of Kazakhstan grain.Firstly,Kazakhstan is far from China’s main grain-consuming area and the trade cost is high.Secondly,China’s large wheat stocks still need to be digested.Thirdly,Xinjiang,which borders Kazakhstan,is a province with balanced grain production and sales.Lastly,China’s private enterprises have a small number of grain quotas.In such a situation,China should guide and encourage Chinese enterprises to cooperate more on the agricultural industry chain of Kazakhstan,strengthen the cooperation in the field of agricultural services,and help Kazakhstan achieve agricultural structural adjustment and economic diversification.