基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布

Prediction of Camellia edithae species distribution based on multi-model combination

气候是影响生物多样性和物种分布的一个重要因素,近年来由于温室气体的大规模排放,气候正在快速的发生变化,对植物的分布影响巨大。研究采用山茶科山茶属尖萼红山茶(Camellia edithae Hance.)作为研究对象,通过实地考察和网上查阅获取其分布数据,从世界气候网站和兰州寒区旱区科学数据中心获取环境变量,结合R语言、Erdas和ArcGIS等软件对其当前和将来(2070)的分布区进行模拟并得出置信度和计算其面积变化和质心变化。研究结果表明,AUC值均大于0.9,属于非常好的预测,影响其分布的主要因子是Bio01(年平均温度)、Bio04(温度季节变化)、Bio15(降水量变异系数)和Bio03(昼夜温差与年温差比值)。在四种二氧化碳排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0及RCP8.5)所进行的预测均表明尖萼红山茶的分布面积均有收缩,且收缩面积随着碳排放程度的加剧而增加,且最大收缩面积占总面积的80%。通过对该物种质心变化的预测中发现,其总体呈现向北部迁移的趋势。通过本次的预测发现气候变化在未来可能对尖萼红山茶的生存威胁很大。

Climate is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution.In recent years,due to the large-scale emission of greenhouse gases,the climate change has a great impact on the distribution of plants.In this study,Camellia edithae was used as the research object.The data and access of this field were used to obtain the distribution data.The environmental variables were obtained from the World Climate Website and Cold and Arid Regions Science Data Center at Lanzhou.The software of R,erdas,and ArcGIS were used to simulate the current and future(2070)distributions and derive confidence and calculate their area and centroid changes.The results show that all of the AUC values are greater than 0.9,which is a very good prediction.The main factors affecting the distribution are Bio01(Mean annual temperature),Bio04(Temperature seasonality),Bio15(Coefficient of variation of Precipitation seasonality)and Bio03(Isothermality and annual temperature difference ratio).In four kind of different CO2 emission scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5),the result suggest that the distribution area of Camellia edithae Hance.has contracted,and the shrinkage area increases with the increase of carbon emission.The maximum shrinkage area accounts for 80%of the total area.The survival of tea may be very threatening.In addition,under the background of the shrinkage of the total area,its distribution also appears in a trend of moving toward the north as a whole.