基于熵权TOPSIS模型的鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力评价

Evaluation of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Ordos City based on the TOPSIS model of entropy weight

资源环境和经济社会之间的关系是资源环境承载力的研究基础,是判断区域是否可持续发展的重要标志。从资源、环境、社会和经济4个方面选取24个指标构建鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定各指标的权重,运用TOPSIS模型对该地区的资源环境承载力进行研究,并结合多元回归模型分析鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力的驱动因素。结果表明:鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力指数在2008-2015年间整体呈上升趋势,波动幅度不大,由2008年的0.4425上升到2015年的0.5562,在2010年指数有较明显下降。资源承载力、社会承载力和经济承载力呈上升趋势,环境承载力呈下降趋势,其中资源承载力与整个资源环境承载力变化趋势基本一致,经济承载力最终升至0.9444,几乎达到最优承载力水平。模型分析表明,资源因素对资源环境承载力影响最大,经济因素次之。建议未来控制资源消耗,做好经济结构的合理化转型,提高能源的利用效率,以提高资源、经济方面的承载能力;同时在环境保护和社会进步方面,通过促进节能减排,加大污染治理,适当控制人口数量,降低人口压力等方式来共同提高鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力能力从而促进其可持续发展。

The relationship between resources,environment,economy and society is the foundation for study on the carrying capacity for resources and environment,also an important sign to judge whether the region can develop sustainably.In this article an evaluation index system for the bearing capacity for resources and environment was constructed based on 24 factors from 4 areas including resources,environment,society and economy in Ordos City.The regional carrying capacity for resources and environment was studied by TOPSIS model,and the driving factors for bearing capacity for resources and environment were analyzed combined with the multivariate regression model analysis.The results showed that the index of the carrying capacity of resources and environment of Ordos City was on the rise from 2008 to 2015,with a small fluctuation range.The index increased from 0.4425 in 2008 to0.5562 in 2015,with a significant decrease in 2010.The resource,social and economic carrying capacities were on rise,while the environmental carrying capacity was on decline.The resource carrying capacity was basically consistent with the change trend of the whole carrying capacity of resources and environment,and the economic carrying capacity eventually rose to 0.9444,almost reaching the optimal carrying capacity level.The model analysis showed that the resource factor had the biggest influence on the carrying capacity for resources and environment,and the economic factor was the second.It is suggested to control resource consumption in the future,rationalize the economic structure,and improve the efficiency of energy utilization so as to improve the bearing capacity of resources and economy.At the same time,in terms of environmental protection and social development,it is necessary to promote energy conservation and emission reduction,increase pollution control,properly control population size and reduce population pressure to jointly improve the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Ordos City so as to promote its sustainable development.