长江中游城市群城市化与生态环境耦合协调分析及模拟预测

Analyzing and predicting the urbanization and eco-environment coupling and coordination of The middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomerations

研究长江中游城市群的城市化与生态环境耦合协调的特征为城市群实现高质量发展提供理论参考。以长江中游城市群28个城市为研究对象,运用耦合协调模型定量分析2006-2017年城市化与生态环境耦合的时空演变规律,同时运用LSTM深度学习模型预测2018-2022年城市化与生态环境耦合协调发展。“城市群-城市”的多重视角下,长江中游城市群城市化与生态环境的耦合协调度呈现波动上升趋势。其中,长沙、武汉、南昌3个中心城市在城市群中具有带动性作用;长江中游城市群城市化与生态环境耦合协调发展空间格局形成以武汉、长沙、南昌三个中心城市为核心的多中心空间结构。空间格局表现出空间异质性,尚未形成一体化的耦合协调空间格局;预测结果表明2018-2022年长江中游城市群城市化与生态环境耦合协调度整体有所提升,但整体提升速度较慢;大部分城市耦合协调度延续了增长的趋势,升级为初级以上的协调发展等级。

Researching the characteristics of the coupling and coordination between urbanization and eco-environment of urban agglomeration along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River provides some theoretical references for the high-quality development of urban agglomeration.This thesis,taking twenty-eight cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as the research objects,takes a quantitative analysis of the time evolvement rules of the coupling between urbanization and eco-environment in 2006 to 2017 and then aims to predict its trend in 2018-2022 on a basis of the Coupling Coordination Model and the Deep Learning Model.The result shows the degree of coupling and coordination between urbanization and eco-environment of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River presents an upward fluctuating trend,among which these three cities:Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang play a leading role with a multi-centers spatial structure centered on them.Nevertheless,this spatial pattern has not yet been an integrated coupled and coordinated one,manifesting spatial differentiation.The predicted results show that the degree of coupling and coordination between urbanization and eco-environment of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river will have been integrally improved but with a slow speed in 2018-2022,and most of the cities will keep an upward trend,upgrading to primary degree of coordination.