摘要
The spread of the COVID-19 will have a negative impact on international prices in a short time.This article compares the four oil price slumps in the past half century with the slump caused by the COVID-19,and concludes that the current drop in oil prices is not very serious.It is expected that international oil prices will recover rapidly with the end of the outbreak.The average international oil price in 2020 will be slightly lower than that in 2019.If Japan,South Korea,Iran and Italy can take effective measures to curb the outbreak as soon as possible,international oil prices will remain within the analysis range in the fall of quantity and price on the demand side.The annual average Brent price should be slightly reduced based on an analysis of Chinese factors.However,if it continues to spread around the world and becomes out of control in the Islamic oil and gas producing countries,it is likely that the oil price will increase due to insufficient supply.
