如何正确评估中美贸易摩擦的影响

How to correctly evaluate the influence of Sino-US trade friction

中美贸易摩擦为国际经济稳定发展带来了震动,亟需学术界在各个层面进行分析与预判。通过数据分析、比较论证,结合历史时期国际经济发展的经验教训,对中美贸易摩擦产生的本质、美国现任总统特朗普的施政政策、中国的应对能力、美日贸易摩擦经验借鉴、中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱等5个方面展开研究。研究认为,特朗普宣扬的"美国优先"和重商主义目的,会削弱美元的国际货币地位,而中国在产品与要素转移方面的优势,能保证中国受到贸易摩擦带来的中长期影响较小,但导致美方损失较大;《广场协议》之后日本经济停滞主要是日本自身人口的减少和老龄化,并非美日贸易摩擦导致的;中美军事力量存在一定差距,中国也不会挑战美国,中美是可以避免修昔底德陷阱的。研究表明,中国在正确的内外政策下,能够将中美贸易摩擦对中国的影响降到最低,实现持续和平发展。

Sino-US trade friction has brought shocks to the stable development of international economy, and urgently requires the academia to analyze and make a pre-estimation on all levels. This paper conducts research on the five aspects of the essence of the origin of Sino-US trade friction, the ruling policies of the incumbent President Trump of the US, China’s coping capabilities, experience drawn from the US-Japan trade friction, and whether China and the US can avoid the Thucydides trap, by way of data analysis and comparative argumentation, based on the experience and lessons in international economic development in historic eras. Results show that the "America First" and the mercantilism advocated by Trump will weaken the status of US dollars as the international currency, while China will sustain a lesser impact in the mid to long term by the trade friction due to its advantages in products and factors transfer. This is why the US will bear more losses in the Sino-US trade friction. Japan met an economic stagnation after the Plaza Accord, mostly due to the decrease and ageing in its own population, not because of the US-Japan trade friction. There is certain gap in the military clout of China and the US, and China will not challenge the US, so they can avoid the Thucydides trap. In the context of the correct domestic and foreign policies, China is able to lower the impact of the Sino-US trade friction to a minimum and achieve sustained peaceful development.